Admit Rates: a numbers story. -Anonymous

Some extreme math to make a point about admit rates....

Two Colleges, Apple and Orange each have 10,000 applications for 2,000 freshman seats, and they both have a theoretical yield in regular of 25%.

Apple University doesn't think Early Decision is the right way to go, and so their 10,000 applications are all RD apps. They need to accept 8,000 students to get 2,000 to show up, so Apple's admit rate is 80%.

Orange College is really focused on admit rate-their President puts pressure on the Dean of Admissions to get the admit rate as low as possible.   They aggressively market ED1 and ED2, and give the benefit of the doubt to all ED applicants on the fence.   Through both ED rounds they get 2,000 applicants, and accept 1,500 of them.  (75% ED admit rate)   They now have 8,000 RD applicants, and 500 spots to fill.   Remembering this is an extreme example, they accept 400 students in RD, yielding them another 100 students.  (5% RD admit rate, before WL admits)  Now, they know that if they call their waitlisted students and make sure they're going to come if they admit them, they can roughly get 100% yield from their WL.   So they admit 400 more off the WL, getting them to their 2,000 seats, and pushing the overall RD admit rate up to 10%.   At the end of the day, they admitted 2,300 students, and Orange's admit rate is 23%.

Again- these aren't real examples, and I simplified some of the many moving parts of enrollment management.   But even in more real life examples, ED and Waitlist strategy can wildly influence admit rate.  It's just as much a picture of the Dean's enrollment philosophy as it is school quality.   We all know about the rise in ED, but I feel like I've noticed the Waitlist (or ED3) trend more in the past few years, and it gets less discussion.   Instead of colleges using the WL in case they don't hit their number, they are specifically planning to use the WL to hit their number.   There can be more reasons behind this than just yield, but as more colleges pull this lever purposely, the April/May trickle down impacts of massive WL activity will be significant.

BUCKLE-UP, BUTTERCUP…IT’S MY FAVORITE TIME OF YEAR: ESSAYS!

One surprise many students and parents get when it comes to applications is how many essays there are to write. Here in California, where many students apply to one or more of the University of California schools, there are four short prompts, then there’s the traditional college essay used for the Common Application, the Coalition Application joined the party a few years ago, and finally there are often multiple supplemental essays for individual schools.

The key takeaway: START EARLY!

THE COMMON APP

• The Personal Statement (essay) prompts are the same as last year. You choose one.

• The Common Application has added a new optional question about your experience during Covid. Here it is:

  1. Community disruptions such as COVID-19 and natural disasters can have deep
     and long-lasting impacts. If you need it, this space is yours to describe those impacts. Colleges care about the effects on your health and well-being, safety, family circumstances, future plans, and education, including access to reliable technology and quiet study spaces.
     1. Do you wish to share anything on this topic? Y/N
     2. Please use this space to describe how these events have impacted you.

The Covid Question vs. the Personal Statement: 

Let’s address the difference between the Covid question and the Common App’s personal statement. A personal statement shows reflection and/or a new understanding of yourself or others. You want to show your characteristics through a confirmation of change. For example, you saw a fight break out in school, know it was because of a misunderstanding, joined a peer counseling group, helped to grow its membership and are proud of the reduced conflict at school. The actions taken confirm that a change has happened, and you’ve had time to reflect on it and what it means to you.

 Whereas, the Covid question helps you acknowledge happenings without a great deal of reflection. You probably haven’t had time to absorb all of how the new normal has affected you, done something about it (proof of change) and been able to say what it means to you. Instead, for this question, you really just want to answer: What have you done? I made dinner once a week. What has the impact been? I learned how to use a pressure cooker and we sat down more as a family. What were you not able to do? I was going to be the trial attorney for Mock Trial.  How do you feel about it? I’m sad I missed out, but I’ve learned to move on.

If the quarantine didn’t impact you at all (really, at all), then maybe you should not answer this question. It is optional, and if you didn’t gain or loose through this crisis, there’s no need to mention that.

THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

• The four Personal Insight Questions (PIQ’s) are the same as last year. 

• There continues to be an Additional Information section at the end of this application to add anything not yet said or accounted for in your application.

Amanda’s Suggestion: If you’re not addressing how Covid affected you in one of the 4 PIQ’s, use what you write for the C App’s Covid question in the Additional Information section.

THE APPROACH

June/ July

1. Work through the UC’s PIQ’s-- 4, 350 word essays -- if you’re applying

2. The Common App Personal Statement/ Adjust it for the Coalition App, if needed

3.  Covid Statement/ UC Additional Information section

August

1. Pull all available supplemental essays (often released/ confirmed in August and September)

2.  Identify overlapping questions that can be reused or slightly modified

3.  Create a schedule for completion…there are 12 weeks between September 1st and the end of November. Shooting for closure on one school a week in the fall to complete your applications will maintain your sanity and preserve your winter break!

READY, SET, GET WRITING! 

Junior Class of 2021: What Does the Covid Crisis Mean for You?

Juniors are asking really good questions right now about how the fallout over Covid is going to affect their admission cycle. And though I certainly don’t have many of the answers right now, I wanted to try to give them a voice and help to condense and clarify the responses we’re hearing from college leaders. 

SPRING GRADES

• High schools are handling spring semester grades in various ways based on their policies and population (no change, frozen grades, P/F, changes in assessments, etc.).

 Question: Will my high school’s decision have an affect on how I’m evaluated by admissions? 

Overwhelmingly, college admissions are repeating, “WE GET IT!” Many of those in the driver’s seat of their admission offices have been there for 20 years or more, most have kids of their own, and none have seen anything like the Covid crisis. You will not be penalized for your situation. Colleges will take into consideration a high school’s policy, look at a student’s trajectory, perhaps wait for 1st semester senior grades, read what a student reveals in their additional information sections, look to teacher recommendations and plan to be as flexible as possible with a student’s circumstances. 

Colleges are going to want to hear from you. Be explanatory about your circumstances. Tell them what you did, what you were unable to do, why, and a little of how you feel about it. There’s going to be a new section this year on the Common App just for this, and I expect other applications will follow.

ACT/ SAT TESTING

• ACT has not announced test cancellations for June because they are trying to work within individual states and counties for sites and cooperation. 

  • Amanda’s Prediction: ACT will not be available in California in June.

• Both ACT and SAT have announced an extra test date for the fall in September.

• This is a link to 485+ Top Tier Schools with Test Optional policies for Fall 2021 applicants. Some may do this for only one year. It’s updated regularly:  http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/Optional-Schools-in-U.S.News-Top-Tiers.pdf.  

Questions: Does test optional truly mean optional? If a test opportunity exists, should I take it? When should I report my scores, and when shouldn’t I?

All of these questions are going to somewhat depend on the school to which you are applying, but if you have an opportunity to take a test and feel relatively prepared, take it. You may want it later for placement or merit-based financial aid awards. Having one makes you more prepared than not having one, and having one, does not mean you have to send it.

“Optional” means schools will not count the lack of a test against you. They will use all other resources at their disposal (your transcript, first and foremost), your high school’s profile, your letters of recommendation, your activities, your interests and your essays to help them determine if you will be a good fit for their campus. A high score can breed more confidence and a low score is something difficult to “un-see,” as one Gettysburg admission representative expressed. So, look at the average test scores for a particular institution. Does yours fall in their middle fifty percentile range or above? If they do, sending them is not likely a problem. 

ACTIVITIES

• Spring sports were cancelled. School based clubs, fundraisers and events were cancelled. Community clubs and activities are on hold.

• Jobs are almost non-existent for teens.

• Many summer internship and program opportunities were cancelled.

Questions: If my major activity was wrapped up in [ASB, Band, Mock Trial, Sports, Robotics, etc.], how am I supposed to show what impact I was going to have in the most important semester of my involvement? How am I going to stand out when I’m sitting at home?

First, take care of yourself for a little while and know that no one expects you to be doing anything but making sure you’re OK. Second, take a moment to assess what it was about your activities that you liked. In other words, why do you participate in them? If everything went back to normal next fall, would you do all the same things? Why or why not? Could this be something important for colleges to know?

When you are able to think past the obstacles and find something you like to do, but don’t usually have time for, do that. It could be spending more time with your family, helping a younger sibling with math or, something your parents would love, cleaning out the garage. It could also be helping in your community somehow. Does a grandparent live in a retirement facility where seniors need shoppers or to be taught how to use Zoom so they can connect with their own families? A recent survey of college admissions professionals has revealed that character is very important. Who better to share your character and values than with those who taught them to you…your family!

Summer might offer even more time for you, and I do think it’s a golden opportunity to learn. Plenty of free online courses out there, everything from baking the perfect cupcake to learning to code. Some of the original summer programs are also going online, but before you jump in to another programmed summer, make sure it’s valuable to you, not just to your resume. Personally, I’ve always wanted to learn to skateboard, but realize I am well past that time of my life and instead, have been learning to meditate. Meditation is not for credit…it is something I’m doing for me. That makes it no less valuable and is something I can tell others that helps them learn more about me.

ESSAYS

• The Common App has announced the addition of an optional Covid-19 question to the application.

• This gives students the opportunity to address their experiences without making it the focus of the main essay (personal statement).

• I will address essays in a future blog, so hang in there just knowing, you have more places to write about your experiences!

HOW WILL DECISIONS OF 2020 GRADUATES AFFECT 2021

• This fall’s enrollment numbers will affect admission spots for 2021…that’s nothing new. 

• What’s new are the projections of 10-20% less students on campus who may want to join the next year’s class.

Question: Will it be harder for me to get in to college next year?

 The collective doesn’t know. What we do know is that most admission offices have been getting increased inquiries about gap years, gap semesters, financial aid requests, and international students who may not be able to get to the US this fall. 

At this time, deposits are holding steady and are actually up at some schools (kids still want to go to school, and frankly, don’t know what else they’d do this fall), but that could be because students are double depositing, a practice intensely frowned upon. 

OK, but what does that mean for you?! Some schools will easily fill their enrollment without an increase in fall deferrals, so this will not likely change admission opportunities at those highly selective institutions. Some schools are really scared they may loose a chunk from 2020 who want to return and don’t have the infrastructure (dorms and classrooms) to admit fully in 2021. Some schools were in serious financial straits even before the crisis and cuts to faculty and/or programs will have the largest affect on enrollment. 

There are so many moving parts here that we are still going to be guessing as you enter the fall admission cycle. Colleges are releasing information, but focused on 2020 right now. It’s definitely a wait and see game, there will be unexpected surprises, but I am paying attention.

Your role, juniors: take care of you, take care of those around you, learn something, contribute to something and maybe, just maybe, read a book.

April Update: Shifting Policies in the Time of Covid

Now that both high schools and colleges are making decisions to stay closed for the rest of the school year, they’ve been able to focus on some of their admission policies and how they’re going to affect both juniors and seniors. Many are starting to make allowances, proclaim flexibility, change their test requirements and encourage families to reach out to their financial aid offices when financial circumstances have changed. Stay with me…more shifts to come, but here’s where we are at the end of this first week of April.

ACT/ SAT Testing (Juniors)

• Both ACT and SAT are working to increase the capacity of summer and fall test sites to accommodate more students. They might also offer another administration date, but that is a more complex undertaking, than just increasing site availability.

• If you must choose, students should prioritize the SAT over the Subject Tests if you were planning to take them, and your earlier test date was cancelled.

• University of California and California State Universities have suspended the required standardized test submission for students applying for Fall 2021. Translation: SAT and/ or ACT are no longer required. Students confident in their scores should submit, but those who do not, will not be penalized. UC President, Janet Napolitano, said campuses would adjust their admissions review processes “to ensure that no student is harmed in admissions selection should they not submit a test score.” They are still encouraging students to submit.

• This is a link to 400+ Top Tier Schools with Test Optional policies for Fall 2021 applicants. Some may do this for only one year. It’s updated regularly:  http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/Optional-Schools-in-U.S.News-Top-Tiers.pdf.  

 AP’s

In my last post, I listed the changes for AP testing (at home, 45 minutes, free-response). We now know more information about the test format and information about credit and cheating.  

• Each exam will be given twice: once in May (5/11–5/22) and then again in June (6/1–6/5). For the exact dates/times of each test, see the full AP schedule here.

• Each exam will be given at the same time worldwide. This means that depending on a student's time zone the test may be at an odd time (early morning, late evening, or middle of the night).

• Students will pick ONE date to take their test. The decision will be entirely up to the student.

• The tests will be open-book. Students can refer to their notes but CANNOT collaborate with other people.

• To prevent cheating, the humanities-based tests will be comprised of reading and analyzing primary sources and the math and sciences will be more complex questions where you will be asked to show your work. The College Board is adding a range of digital security platforms like plagiarism detectors.

• University of California, has announced they will accept all AP scores for credit as usual. Students will need to send them officially through Collegeboard.org by July 15th to their school of choice.

• Other schools are taking a wait-and-see approach for credit. Colleges are working with faculty and creating solutions such as offering a bridge course to fill in the curriculum gap, or backing up their starting course curriculum to accommodate what students may have missed during the closures. Also, Academic Advisors will be asking more questions during orientation, “You received a 4 on your AP Calc BC test, but are you ready for Calc 3?”

High School Grades (Juniors and Seniors)

• University of California and California State U’s have announced they will suspend the letter grade requirement for the 15 prescribed college prep classes (A-G’s) completed in winter/spring/summer 2020 for all students, including UC’s most recently admitted freshmen. That means P/F or Credit/ No Credit grades will be accepted. They will NOT be included in their GPA calculation.

• University of California and California State U’s have also announced they will not rescind a student’s offer of admission this fall that is a result from a student or school missing official final transcript deadlines (high schools are supposed to send transcripts to the college of choice by July 1st). 

• Other colleges will have varied policies, but I am hearing over and over that they are going to be “extremely flexible” when it comes to making sure students are enrolled this fall.

Letters of Recommendations (Juniors)

For those schools who accept them, a letter of recommendation can help a student in a variety of ways. This semester particularly, if your school moves to a P/F grade system, and this was the semester you totally rocked it, a teacher can speak to that upswing in performance and to your motivation and interest.

I highly recommend asking two teachers for a letter, sometime between now and the end of May. In your request, you should refer to your specific situation, to prompt that response in your letter.

 May 1st vs. June 1st Decision Date (SIR)

Some schools are announcing a month delay in their decision date. However, many schools (especially those in a public system) may not be able to change their decision date because they are held to state-wide laws. However, you can still call/ email your admission representative to ask for an extension based on your circumstances, and they will likely grant it. 

 A Change in Financial Circumstances

Financial aid is based on the “prior-prior” year. For instance, students in the Class of 2020 submitted their 2018 tax info for FAFSA. If your financial situation has changed drastically since 2018 (or 2019 for the class of 2021) - you may be eligible for additional aid. Wait until you receive your financial package from the university and then send back data supporting your need for an adjustment of the amount of aid given.

 In Closing

Let me leave you with a little snippet from one of the best webinars I’ve seen this week (and, I’ve seen a lot). From Rick Clark, Director of Undergraduate Admission at Georgia Tech:

“There’s going to be a huge asterisk around the whole semester - high schools are all handling things differently, and no matter the decision, colleges will look at the rest of the college transcript. However, if school decide to go Credit/No Credit or Pass/Fail - it isn’t time for kids to slack off, because they still will need teacher recommendations. They will be looking at what students do “in spite” of their situation - they cannot control what is given to them, but they need to make the most of what is offered. However, there will be a lot of “grace and understanding” for all circumstances. There will be an increase in flexibility.

 Hirko’s Word of the Week: FLEXIBILITY!